Is Buy and Hold Over?

Posted by Allan | Stock Market | Saturday 17 January 2009 5:56 PM

Buy and hold use to be the common phrase at most investment firms. I never really believed it to be the best plan; however, is the idea dead in all investment firms? There are two different thoughts for this topic.

The first thought I have is this method will be dead for the time being. The market took a huge dive, as we all know, and even the most sound stocks have gone down. People will not trust this theory and investors will try a new way to invest for a few years. Then, when they see the market in a bull move for a few years, they will go back to old ways. Getting 8%-10% seems too enticing for doing nearly nothing. The problem is we will always come back to a bear market again. Unless you learned from the first one, you will loose massive amounts of money again.

My second thought is people will no longer adhere to the buy and hold idea.  If their investment adviser does not decide to change, they will be history and the client will move on to someone who adheres to their own investing strategies. An example of a good investor is Gary Kaultbaum. I have mentioned him before on this site. He is a strict investor who only buys companies with growing sales and income. Growth stocks are not risky if strict on selling policies as mentioned in early articles, 8%. The upside is 200% to 1200% gains. That is life changing.

The person who learns form this bull market on money managing will in the future save themselves tons of money. Think if you could have, at worst, cut losses at 8% for all stocks, instead of 20%, 30%, 50% this year. Or even better, listened to people who know what they are talking about and sold stocks before the major downfall. If you are investing your money, it is adivsed you do not simply rely on somoene, but do some homework yourself and keep up to date with the market.

Why to Keep a Stock Journal

Posted by Allan | Stock Market | Friday 16 January 2009 12:40 PM

The point of a stock journal is to write down exactly what you bought, when to cut losses, and record gains. A journal will help all investors who have a hard time selling loser stocks. As you have noticed, a lot of my articles have this concept in them - when to sell. For many people, this has been the biggest issue to grapple with. If are not strict to this rule of selling losers at 8%, you will lose money more often than not.

You cannot second guess yourself saying, “Well, what if the stock goes up?” This is not okay, this will make you lose more often than not. Keeping a journal will make the line of selling more definite. You could also go on to record what the stock did afterward for the first few times to see what you would have lost afterward just to prove my point.

*Journals can be paper-bound or electronic on the computer.

When to Buy Stocks

Posted by Allan | Jargon, Stock Market | Friday 16 January 2009 12:21 PM

I am sure most of you have asked the question, “When do I buy stocks?”  There is no easy answer, but a good set of rules is as follows:

  1. Buy stocks that are $10 or more
  2. Do not be afraid to buy stocks with new highs
  3. Buy on pull back days on a monster stock
  4. Buy when above 50-day moving average

There are more rules than these, but this is a good set of foundations to help you look at why you are buying and when to buy. Make sure your buy is not emotional, make it factual and based on rules you set before you go into buying stocks. A major issue is people do not make rules and stick to them. You must be disciplened when working with the stock market.

How Trading Fees Add Up

Posted by Allan | Stock Market | Thursday 15 January 2009 3:50 PM

You will see many published and online individuals telling you to buy 20-30 stocks to diversify your portfolio. Say you have 20,000 to invest.  Now say you listen to this diversify idea, follow it, and conservatively do 20 trades to initially start.

20 trades at $10 a trade for buy and sell. That is 20 x 2 x 10 = $400

Just to break even, you would need to make 2%. If you were to choose 3 good stocks that had great fundamentals and good technical setup, you would save money. 3 x 2 x 10 =$60. That is a $340 save.

Also, you have to think how hard you’d work while trying to keep up with 20 stocks. Can you really focus on just one? Do you really know what is going on with the stock? Just make sure you cut loses, such as the ones mentioned here. If you have hundreds of thousand of dollars and all day to research diversifying, this much is definitely possible and great. But, if you have limited funds the fees will eat you alive.

Stock Climaxes and What They Mean

Posted by Allan | Stock Market | Thursday 15 January 2009 2:54 PM

Stocks that run up over 100% usually end in a climax. You will see a gap up after the stock has already gone up. Usually, it is a climax of 20-50%. This is a time you should sell and not risk trying to get extra money. After the climax run, the stock will drop past its 50-day moving average and continue to drop. If you look up the charts, you can see this effect on stocks. Some of them are Yahoo, Broadcom, and many others. Looking back on history can help you understand the market a little more.

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